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Who Will Dethrone Ursula von der Leyen?
In an unexpected twist, Ursula von der Leyen’s tenure as the President of the European Commission is under serious threat. Once seen as a shoo-in for re-election, her position is now precarious due to multiple scandals and waning popularity. As we delve into why von der Leyen is losing ground, we also rank the top contenders vying for her coveted position.
The Roadblocks Ahead for Ursula von der Leyen
1. Lead Candidate of the Party: A Check for Ursula
Ursula von der Leyen has successfully positioned herself as the face of her Centre-Right EPP group. With the EPP projected to win the most seats, this seemed like her easiest hurdle, earning her a solid 9 out of 10 chance from our perspective at EU Made Simple.
2. Winning Party Support: Still Favorable
The third challenge is where it gets tricky. Ursula needs the backing of 20 out of the 27 EU countries. However, scandals like ‘Pfizergate’ — where she faced criticism for not keeping records of her text exchanges with Pfizer’s CEO — and her firm support for Israel have cost her goodwill. Despite likely support from conservative leaders within her party, she needs at least eight more countries to back her, including crucial Eastern European countries. At EU Made Simple, we give her an 8 out of 10 chance of overcoming this stage.
